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The National Association of Home Builders estimated that remodeling spending was flat on average across states in the second quarter of 2026. Spending fell in 26 states and rose in 24, while only North Carolina and Illinois among the 10 largest remodeling markets recorded growth, according to the report.
Remodeling spending was flat on average across U.S. states in Q2 2026, even as the housing market slowed, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) State Projections of Remodeling. Spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24, with an average state growth rate of 0.0%, pointing to broadly subdued activity rather than a widespread rise or fall.
The report found that growth was uneven and concentrated in smaller states. Among the 10 states with the largest shares of the remodeling market, only North Carolina and Illinois recorded spending growth during the quarter, NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said. The source report does not provide individual state growth rates or dollar totals in its summary.
NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling (SPR) provides quarterly estimates of remodeling spending and market share by state. The association says its proprietary statistical model combines national quarterly home improvement spending data, state-level indicators and NAHB’s annual state remodeling forecast. The results are estimates from that model, not a direct count of every remodeling project or transaction.
NAHB remodelers chairman Elliott Pike attributed the flat results to rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment, which he said are weighing on projects. He also cited longer-term factors that he believes could support demand, including aging housing, homeowners staying put because of mortgage-rate lock-in, home equity gains and interest in aging in place.
Flat Spending Limits Near-Term Growth
The state-level split suggests that remodeling remained active in many markets but did not generate net growth in the national pattern captured by NAHB’s average. For homeowners, the findings indicate that conditions varied by state; they do not establish that costs, project availability or demand were the same everywhere. For contractors and building-material retailers, the results point to a market in which local performance may matter more than a broad national trend.
The report also places the flat quarter against competing pressures. Higher project costs and subdued consumer sentiment may make households more cautious about discretionary work, while homeowners who cannot or do not want to move may continue to invest in their existing properties. The data show the current spending estimate, but do not measure how much each of those factors contributed.
That distinction matters for interpreting the slowdown: a flat average is not evidence that remodeling has stopped, nor does it mean every state or business experienced unchanged demand. It is a sign that growth was limited overall in the quarter, with gains and declines nearly balanced across states.
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How NAHB Measures Remodeling
The findings come from NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling, a quarterly analysis designed to estimate state spending and market shares. Because the SPR combines national spending data with state indicators and an annual forecast, its figures should be read as model-based estimates. The report summary does not identify the specific state indicators or give a margin of error.
NAHB also reported that its Remodeling Market Index (RMI), a measure of industry confidence, had remained above 60 for the preceding year. That is a separate indicator from the spending estimates: confidence reflects survey responses, while the SPR estimates spending. The source gives no Q2 RMI reading, so it does not establish a precise quarter-to-quarter change in confidence.
As longer-term industry context, NAHB said there were 128,000 remodeling firms at the start of 2025, compared with 69,000 in 2000. The report also said remodeling accounts for a growing share of residential construction, measured by both firm counts and total spending. Those figures describe the industry’s longer trajectory; they do not alter the flat Q2 2026 estimate.
State-Level Details Still Limited
The published summary gives the number of states with increases and declines, but does not provide state-by-state spending amounts, the size of individual changes, or the dollar value of total Q2 remodeling spending. It is also unclear from the summary how much of the flat average reflects project costs, changes in the number of projects, or other market conditions.
NAHB’s explanations of construction costs, consumer sentiment and potential long-term demand are attributed assessments. The report does not quantify their separate effects. Nor does the information provided establish whether the near-even state split will continue in later quarters or when spending may return to growth.
Future Quarterly Estimates to Track
NAHB’s subsequent State Projections of Remodeling updates will show whether spending growth strengthens, weakens or remains uneven across states. Readers can compare those estimates with the association’s remodeling confidence index, while keeping in mind that confidence and modeled spending measure different things.
For now, the Q2 report documents a 0.0% average growth rate across states and a near-even split between states with gains and declines. NAHB expects longer-term growth, but the available figures do not specify a timetable or guarantee that the forecast will be borne out.
Key Questions
Was remodeling spending up or down in Q2 2026?
NAHB’s state estimates showed an average growth rate of 0.0%. Spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24, so the overall result was flat on average.
Which large remodeling markets recorded growth?
According to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz, North Carolina and Illinois were the only states among the 10 with the largest remodeling market shares to record growth.
Why did NAHB say spending was flat?
Remodelers chairman Elliott Pike cited rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment as pressures on projects. The report does not quantify how much each factor affected spending.
Does the report show that remodeling demand will grow soon?
No specific timing is given. Pike pointed to aging homes, home equity and homeowners choosing to age in place as possible support for longer-term growth, while NAHB’s Q2 figures show spending was flat on average.
Source: hardwareretailing.com
